SEATTLE – Both buyers and sellers are showing up with more interest as lower mortgage rates provide a boost to the housing market’s “last call” before the shopping season winds down.
Another break in mortgage rates over September brought a flurry of activity, according to the latest market report from Zillow, which, depending on the path of rates ahead, could continue into October.
For a buyer who could have afforded the mortgage payment on a typical home in May, mortgage rates falling to a two-year low of 6.08% in late September meant a boost of more than $40,000 in buying power over the past four months. That rate decrease also brought more sellers to the market. As a result, both home sales (-22.2% compared to pre-pandemic norms) and new listings (-17%) moved closer to their pre-pandemic averages than in recent months.
“September proved the readiness of both buyers and sellers to return when conditions are right. Lower mortgage rates helped more buyers clear the affordability hurdle and gave buyers already in the market more homes to choose from,” said Skylar Olsen, Zillow chief economist. “The mortgage rate spike after a strong jobs report early this month gave back some of those affordability gains, at least for now. Buyers should be prepared for more ups and downs, which means it’s crucial to have their finances in order and their expert team in place to act quickly, but not rashly, when they find the right house.”
An uptick in activity from both buyers and sellers kept home values more or less in balance. The typical U.S. home value is now just a tick under $361,000, down 0.2% from August. Home values have grown 2.4% nationally over the past year, the slowest pace of annual growth since last October.
Trends in price cuts and time on market help illustrate the bump in competition felt by buyers in September. The share of listings with a price cut fell to 25.1% in September, down from 25.9% in August and a nearly two-year high of 26.2% in July.
Before the pandemic, the time between a home being listed and having an offer accepted grew by an average of three days from August to September. This year, it was only one day, from 20 days for the median home sold in August to 21 days in September.
Buyers markets are spreading across the Southeast
While the housing market nationwide remains neutral, according to Zillow’s market heat index, Atlanta joined a growing list of large Southern metro areas that have tipped in favor of buyers. Ten of the 50 biggest metros are now considered buyers markets, all in Florida, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee and Louisiana.
The trend in new listings goes a long way toward explaining why some markets are more competitive than others. While new listings in September were close to, or even above, pre-pandemic norms in many markets in the Southeast, in markets along both coasts, homeowners are continuing to hold onto their current homes in greater numbers, meaning fewer new listings are hitting the market. That relative lack of options makes the market feel more competitive for buyers in those areas. More plentiful new construction in the South plays a role in unlocking more inventory, as well.
What’s ahead
October is traditionally when the share of listings with a price cut peaks, as sellers make last-ditch efforts to attract buyers ahead of the holiday season. It remains to be seen whether September’s market heat will continue into October, even with mortgage rates rising to 6.32%, as of October 10.
As the early October rise in mortgage rates shows, there is no guarantee they will continue to fall, even if, as expected, the Fed cuts its key rate further. New macroeconomic data will continue to change expectations for the size and speed of future rate cuts and move mortgage rates.
