WASHINGTON — Political uncertainty, soaring insurance costs and the growth of artificial intelligence are among the hot topics that likely will have a big impact on the real estate industry in 2025, according to the Counselors of Real Estate, a global organization of property advisers. Each year, CRE releases its list of the top 10 challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
“We have seen a significant increase in optimism in the commercial real estate industry following the Fed’s easing of interest rates, the potential for a U.S. economic soft landing and the impact on commercial real estate assets and lending market conditions,” says CRE global chair Anthony DellaPelle. “However, the commercial real estate industry faces a number of challenges, from geopolitical uncertainty, elections and regional wars to loan maturities and debt repricing. In many of these challenges, there are opportunities, too, like housing affordability and attainability, sustainability and AI.”
Here are the issues that topped CRE’s list for 2025:
Political uncertainty: “This coming year, elections in more than 70 countries could shake up an already volatile geopolitical landscape, and the U.S. elections, in particular, will have a significant impact on regulation, trade, corporate taxes, immigration policy and sustainability,” DellaPelle says.
Further, debates could brew over rent caps for corporate landlords or 1031 like-kind exchange modifications. “Unpredictability complicates real estate transactions,” CRE cautions in its report, noting investors could be waiting for greater clarity on economic growth, inflation and interest rates.
High financing costs: Interest rates began dropping in the fall but remain elevated, making purchasers cautious. “Deal assessments and market valuations remain complex,” CRE says. “Many owners are hesitant to sell, and potential buyers are wary of high prices, still expecting a surge in distressed asset sales due to upcoming loan maturities.” CRE predicts that buyers will continue to act cautiously, focusing on higher-cap-rate deals. A more aggressive market reentry likely will not materialize for the sector for another two years, the report notes.
Loan maturities deadlines: Nearly $1.8 trillion in commercial real estate loans is set to mature before the end of 2026. “While lenders are increasingly extending these loans in hopes of better market conditions, this temporary relief may soon reach its limits as banks grapple with regulatory constraints and insufficient capital reserves,” CRE finds, adding that the dynamic could affect competition and tenant retention across property types.
Geopolitics and regional wars: Ongoing global turmoil, including the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, could contribute to supply chain disruptions, inflation, labor shortages and more. “Expect higher cap rates as investors price in greater risk” and abandon their former reliance on historical cycles, the report says.
Insurance costs: Natural disasters caused $380 billion in economic losses in 2023 alone, yet only 31% of those were covered by insurance. Insurance premiums are surging due to extreme weather, inflation and increased property values. “Residential, hospitality and senior living properties are particularly impacted, with rising claims,” the report finds. “The old model of buying insurance is fading as owners focus on risk management, rightsizing coverage and exploring alternative risk transfer solutions to control escalating expenses.”
Housing affordability: Housing affordability continues to erode due to rising costs and the ongoing inventory shortage of 4.4 million units. Multifamily rent growth has slowed, but rents have still climbed 45% over the past 15 years. “Despite increased construction, development is uneven, concentrated in major metros and insufficient to meet demand,” the CRE report says. Nearly 54% of renters are now considered “cost-burdened,” devoting more than 30% of their income to housing. “Declining multifamily construction and growing demand from younger renters suggest affordability challenges will intensify in 2025,” the report cautions, while pointing to the need to ramp up new-home construction and preserve more affordable units.
Artificial intelligence innovations: ChatGPT pushed AI more into the mainstream over the past year, and more real estate professionals are seeking to adopt the technology. “AI’s role in real estate is rapidly evolving, with focus shifting to the accuracy, granularity and timeliness of data inputs that drive algorithms,” CRE says. “While AI can optimize certain processes, commercial real estate still faces challenges with fragmented data and location-specific nuances.” Further, AI algorithms require a huge amount of computing power, likely leading to a boom in data center developments.
Sustainability: More frequent hurricanes, wildfires and floods have led to billions of dollars in property damage. Experts have pointed to a need for increased sustainability and climate resiliency in buildings to better protect against the risks. However, U.S. regulations remain mostly fragmented while Europe’s new regulations – like the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive and the U.K.’s Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards – have created stricter sustainability rules. “The urgency for prioritizing sustainability and climate resiliency in real estate strategies has never been more apparent, as we saw massive economic losses last year due to extreme weather, which is also contributing to sky-high insurance costs,” DellaPelle says.
Office conversions: U.S. office vacancy rates are expected to peak at nearly 20% by the end of 2024. These rising vacancies are impacting tax bases, city finances and more. Developers are looking to convert vacant office spaces into housing, although it can be a costly and complex process, the report cautions. “A generational shift is happening in cities as how people use offices stabilizes into a new paradigm, leaving many office buildings poised for adaptive re-use into residential, healthcare and educational uses with the potential to revitalize urban cores,” the report says.
Price gap expectations: Buyers and sellers haven’t been seeing eye-to-eye when it comes to asset prices. But with “the worst of the pricing declines in the past,” pricing gaps likely will narrow and “pricing shock is dissipating,” CRE says. “Pricing declines, especially in sectors like core business districts, are slowing, providing hope for stabilization,” according to CRE’s report, which adds that pricing is trending toward improvement across property types.
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